Bacon’s Rebellion: Ranked Choice Voting Coming to Virginia?

John Baliles | August 20

Now that state and congressional redistricting are done, the non-partisan group OneVirginia2021 that fought for years to bring sensible, fair redistricting to Virginia has rebranded its name and focus. Nonpartisan experts have generally given the resulting legislative congressional maps high marks for partisan fairness even though some unsuccessfully challenged the new maps drawn by the Supreme Court of Virginia. Regardless, redistricting is done — at least until the next redistricting. But I digress….

The newly-minted organization UpVote Virginia will now put forth as a signature issue, Ranked-Choice Voting (RCV) for localities across the Commonwealth. UpVote Virginia sees it as a winning, bi-partisan issue that will produce or encourage the seeking and building of consensus among office-holders and office-seekers.

A Virginia Mercury story cites comments at the announcement by former Gov. George Allen about how the GOP used RCV at its convention in 2021 (in which all three statewide candidates won), and former Lieutenant Governor and current Congressman Don Beyer, who said, “This is an issue that really puts the will of the voters front and center.” If you can get George Allen and Don Beyer on a stage to agree about anything, it must be an idea worth considering.

While the Republicans in 2021 used RCV in a party selection process where it selects the rules, RCV is not used in statewide or legislative primaries or elections overseen by the Commonwealth. In the City of Richmond, however, there is a proposal that would allow for RCV beginning in 2024 — but only for City Council elections, not for Mayor or School Board. Go figure.

RCV allows voters to rank their candidates in preferential order with a 1,2,3 and so on. If a candidate wins on election night with 50.1% of the vote, the election is over. If no candidate wins at least 50.1%, then the candidate with the fewest first-preference votes is eliminated and you have an “instant runoff.” The eliminated candidate’s ballots would then be examined and the votes for whomever was chosen second on those ballots would be applied to the remaining candidates. The process continues until someone receives 50.1%.

Considering that the last two mayoral elections have been won by Mayor Stoney with 36% (2016) and 38% (2020) of the vote, if Richmond is going to consider RCV, it should consider doing so for all local offices.

Writes the Mercury: “Skeptics of ranked-choice voting have argued it’s too complicated and cumbersome, and some have doubts about whether voters and candidates would find the change to be as smooth as proponents think it would be.”

Proponents say it helps reduce negative ads and campaigning and for candidates to appeal to more than just party-line voters, and can widen the candidate field by encouraging more people to run for office.

In New York City last year, the primary race for mayor used RCV and some said “that poor education efforts essentially disenfranchised some voters.”

An analysis of the 2021 mayoral primary results from Citizens Union…found that just under 15% of voters across the city had inactive ballots in the final elimination round under ranked choice voting.

By comparison, in 2013’s Democratic mayoral primary [before RCV was in place], 33% voters cast ballots for candidates who didn’t make it to the top two spots. The decrease in what the report called “wasted” ballots held true for almost every race in the primary, according to the analysis.

In the 2021 primary, 83% of voters ranked at least two candidates on their ballots in the mayoral primary, and by law, they can rank their top 5.  But they can also just select one candidate if they prefer. Couple that with turnout, which in 2021 saw almost a million primary voters, whereas in 2013, the primary saw only 772,000 voters, or about 25% fewer voters.

On the other side of the country, in Alaska, advocates say RCV reduces political party influence since all primary candidates appear on one ballot and the top four finishers advance to the ranked choice general election. They also say like-minded candidates won’t split the same pool of voters and voters can pick a back-up if their candidate falters.

A Congressional primary this week in Alaska resulted in the vote count going into an “instant runoff” with second place votes likely determining the outcome. One voter who was interviewed in the Anchorage paper summed it up best: “With the ranked system, you can vote for who you truly think is correct, and have the lesser of two evils ranked last.”

It’s an idea we should start to look at and understand because it is a voting method that is likely coming to Richmond sooner than we think.

This column has been republished with permission from RVA 5X5.